if someone has enough control over the internet to break Tor it’s reasonable to assume they’ve done the same with VPNs
I don’t agree with this argument.
To break tor, all you need to do is control a percentage of guard nodes and exit nodes. That’s it. It does not require a high level of sophistication and money.
To break the general internet, you would somehow need control over all the packets being sent all over the world and store them in a database and correlate them all. While I suppose this is possible, it requires an extraordinary higher level of sophistication than simply buying a hundred servers and configuring them as guard or exit nodes.
So I don’t think it is valid to claim that if an adversary could break tor it implies they are sophisticated enough to hack a VPN provider or monitor packets before and after a VPN provider.
If we assume the VPN is safe and Tor is broke, all the VPN can offer is masking your home IP from the attacker.
All the VPN can offer? Isn’t the entire point of Tor to prevent your IP address from being correlated to a website? If Tor really was broken, and leaks your IP, but your VPN saves you, that would be very excellent news indeed. It would be hard to justify not using a VPN.
At worst the VPN is a honeypot and somebody is keeping track of every time you use Tor and are building a rap sheet on your activites.
I totally agree with you on this. It is definitely possible for the VPN to be a honeypot and they can now correlate your IP to the destination website without having to perform a correlation attack on Tor. Saves them a lot of time.
You could potentially create your own VPN on your own anonymous web server (paid with monero) using open source technologies. But I suppose it is possible the web hosting company is logging packets and now you are back to square one. I need to read more about this approach, I think it sounds promising.
The other thing I like about the private VPN is for the case where you believe the NSA has broken tor by owning a % of the guard/exit nodes, and where NSA has figured out specifically to monitor packets from the top VPN providers, but is not as sophisticated as to have a general monitoring capability of the entire internet. In this model you could protect IP by hiding behind an anonymous web server (that hopefully doesn’t log packets!)
I think it comes down to, which are you afraid of more, a correlation attack on the tor network, or a honeypot VPN? If you think a tor correlation attack is a realistic scenario, then your IP will maybe be protected if you get lucky and chose a non-honeypot VPN. If you think a tor correlation attack is not realistic, you’re probably better off avoiding VPNs in the event you chose a honeypot.
Fair point, but if that’s the case it’s also reasonable to assume VPNs suffer from the same stigma, right?
I could be wrong, but I am under the impression that many normal people use VPNs, for example for work related tasks, and that government has the same impression that I do. You see the NordVPN advertising on almost every youtube paid promotion nowadays. I convinced my elderly father to use a VPN because he likes going to coffee shops and use his computer and it’s not safe to use their WIFI otherwise.